No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments5
Interest coverage below 4×.
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
The share count grows: net dilution.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Impairment of fcf: 100 % of the window, weighted by recency → 12.0 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments4
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
The publicado consensus candidate was rejected (nivel_inicial_implausible) and is not used.
The derivado consensus candidate was rejected (nivel_inicial_implausible) and is not used.
No consensus candidate passed the plausibility contract: rather than guess which of the provider's two rows is broken, nothing is written and the cascade drops a rung.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency24
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.29122 %13
Earnings · hit rate · 26 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.62011 %0
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.03814 %56
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.0 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 4,81
Growth pace38
Realized · -41.5 %50 %5
Expected · 60.3 %50 %71
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
·20 → 7,61
No recent stagnation50
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %0
Expected slowdown · -1.45×50 %99
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-41.8 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
·15 → 7,47
FCF quality0
FCF / net income conversion · -7.79×100 %0
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Alternative · last 3 years: conversion -7.79× → 0 points.
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2021, 2022): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 0 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 0,00
Debt0
Net debt / EBITDA · 9.70×100 %0
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 1.1×.
Interest coverage below 4×.
·15 → 0,00
Return on invested capital (ROIC)97
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 23.0 %50 %95
Spread over the required return · +0.1 pp over the 10 % required30 %100
Trend · window too short20 %—
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2021, 2022): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 14,57
Weighted base
·100 → 34,46
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · window too short50
±8
0,0
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 3.34100
0/−15
0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.2 % a year0
Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.2 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 4.8 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—
