BIOGEN INC.

BIIB

Forward P/E: 13.06×
Mkt cap: 31.9 B USD
EV: 35.2 B USD
Sector: Healthcare
Coverage: 2007–2025
Currency: USD
Next event: Feb 6, 2027

JP Valuation

JP Score

30,6

Out of profile · window 5 years

JP entry price

OUT OF PROFILE

No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.

Financial comments5

The share count grows: net dilution.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
High stock-based compensation relative to FCF.
Impairment of fcf: 15 % of the window, weighted by recency → 1.8 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.

Quality factors

Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.

Score	Weight → points
Growth consistency11 Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.31222 %0 Earnings · hit rate · 47 %16 %2 Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.62711 %0 Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.02514 %0 Revenue · hit rate · 30 %11 %0 Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.0357 %96 Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus 4.0 % vs. trend -11.4 %20 %20	·20 → 2,21
Growth pace11 Realized · -3.8 %50 %0 Expected · 4.0 %50 %22	·20 → 2,21
No recent stagnation50 Realized slowdown · 7.25×50 %1 Expected slowdown · -1.06×50 %99 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-27.6 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe. Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.	·15 → 7,45
FCF quality100 FCF / net income conversion · 1.45×100 %100 Window chosen: last 3 years (the best of those evaluated). Alternative · last 5 years: conversion 1.38× → 100 points. Stock-based compensation = 15 % of FCF: −0.4 points off the factor. Positive FCF in 3 of the 3 years in the window. High stock-based compensation relative to FCF.	·15 → 14,94
Debt44 Net debt / EBITDA · 1.79×100 %44 Interest coverage (EBIT / \|interest\|) = 6.1×.	·15 → 6,62
Return on invested capital (ROIC)16 Level (recency-weighted mean) · 8.0 %50 %14 Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %30 Trend · −6.4 pp over 5 years20 %0 Average ROIC (8.0 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value. ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.	·15 → 2,41
Weighted base	·100 → 35,85

Modifiers and penalties

The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.

Score	Range	Points
Gross margin trend · −1.2 pp accumulated over 4 years38	±8	-1,9
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 8.92100	0/−15	0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.6 % a year0 Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.6 % of dilution0 Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 0.0 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—	+15/−5	-1,5
Impairment · 15 % · worst magnitude: fcf85 Earnings · 4.3 %96 Free cash flow · 15.3 %85 EBITDA · 3.1 %97	0/−12	-1,8
35,9 − 1,9 + 0,0 − 1,5 − 1,8 =30,6

Calculated on Sep 5, 2026

Score

Weight → points

Growth consistency11

Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.31222 %0
Earnings · hit rate · 47 %16 %2
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.62711 %0
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.02514 %0
Revenue · hit rate · 30 %11 %0
Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.0357 %96
Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus 4.0 % vs. trend -11.4 %20 %20

·20 → 2,21

Growth pace11

Realized · -3.8 %50 %0
Expected · 4.0 %50 %22

·20 → 2,21

No recent stagnation50

Realized slowdown · 7.25×50 %1
Expected slowdown · -1.06×50 %99
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-27.6 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.

·15 → 7,45

FCF quality100

FCF / net income conversion · 1.45×100 %100
Window chosen: last 3 years (the best of those evaluated).
Alternative · last 5 years: conversion 1.38× → 100 points.
Stock-based compensation = 15 % of FCF: −0.4 points off the factor.
Positive FCF in 3 of the 3 years in the window.
High stock-based compensation relative to FCF.

·15 → 14,94

Debt44

Net debt / EBITDA · 1.79×100 %44
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 6.1×.

·15 → 6,62

Return on invested capital (ROIC)16

Level (recency-weighted mean) · 8.0 %50 %14
Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %30
Trend · −6.4 pp over 5 years20 %0
Average ROIC (8.0 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.

·15 → 2,41

Weighted base

·100 → 35,85

Score

Range

Points

Gross margin trend · −1.2 pp accumulated over 4 years38

±8

-1,9

Altman Z'' · Z'' = 8.92100

0/−15

0,0

Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.6 % a year0

Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.6 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 0.0 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—

+15/−5

-1,5

Impairment · 15 % · worst magnitude: fcf85

Earnings · 4.3 %96
Free cash flow · 15.3 %85
EBITDA · 3.1 %97

0/−12

-1,8

35,9 − 1,9 + 0,0 − 1,5 − 1,8 =30,6