Builders FirstSource, Inc.

BLDR

Forward P/E: 14.06×
Mkt cap: 6.76 B USD
EV: 11.0 B USD
Sector: Industrials
Coverage: 2009–2025
Currency: USD
Next event: Feb 17, 2027

JP Valuation

JP Score

30,2

Out of profile · window 5 years

JP entry price

OUT OF PROFILE

No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.

Financial comments5

Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.
Interest coverage below 4×.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.
Impairment of earnings: 17 % of the window, weighted by recency → 2.0 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.

Calculation comments3

No consensus candidate passed the plausibility contract: nothing is rewritten and the path falls to the next rung of the cascade.
The estimated net income does not sit plausibly against the base (0.46 the base in the first year, 0.81 annualised at the end): the consensus is discarded rather than trimmed, and the cascade drops a rung.
Share-count change(s) from corporate actions (2021): out of the shareholder-returns estimator and of the 5-year share projection.

Quality factors

Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.

Score	Weight → points
Growth consistency7 Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.31422 %0 Earnings · hit rate · 20 %16 %0 Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.48611 %0 Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.07114 %0 Revenue · hit rate · 20 %11 %0 Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.1387 %64 Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus -19.5 % vs. trend -33.2 %20 %11	·20 → 1,32
Growth pace0 Realized · -29.1 %50 %0 Expected · -19.5 %50 %0	·20 → 0,00
No recent stagnation1 Realized slowdown · 1.58×50 %1 Expected slowdown · 0.67×50 %1 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-45.9 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe. Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped. Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.	·15 → 0,09
FCF quality100 FCF / net income conversion · 1.51×100 %100 Window chosen: last 3 years (the best of those evaluated). Alternative · last 5 years: conversion 1.32× → 98 points. Positive FCF in 3 of the 3 years in the window.	·15 → 15,00
Debt11 Net debt / EBITDA · 3.09×100 %11 Net debt / EBITDA has risen 3 years in a row: −8 points. Interest coverage (EBIT / \|interest\|) = 2.9×. Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years. Interest coverage below 4×.	·15 → 1,69
Return on invested capital (ROIC)66 Level (recency-weighted mean) · 17.4 %50 %79 Spread over the required return · +0.1 pp over the 10 % required30 %87 Trend · −22.4 pp over 5 years20 %0	·15 → 9,86
Weighted base	·100 → 27,96

Modifiers and penalties

The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.

Score	Range	Points
Gross margin trend · −4.0 pp accumulated over 4 years10	±8	-6,4
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 5.22100	0/−15	0,0
Shareholder returns · shareholder yield 10.6 %71 Effective buyback (net share count) · 10.6 %71 Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 0.0 %0	+15/−5	+10,6
Impairment · 17 % · worst magnitude: earnings83 Earnings · 16.6 %83 Free cash flow · 13.6 %86 EBITDA · 4.0 %96	0/−12	-2,0
28,0 − 6,4 + 0,0 + 10,6 − 2,0 =30,2

Calculated on Sep 5, 2026

Score

Weight → points

Growth consistency7

Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.31422 %0
Earnings · hit rate · 20 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.48611 %0
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.07114 %0
Revenue · hit rate · 20 %11 %0
Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.1387 %64
Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus -19.5 % vs. trend -33.2 %20 %11

·20 → 1,32

Growth pace0

Realized · -29.1 %50 %0
Expected · -19.5 %50 %0

·20 → 0,00

No recent stagnation1

Realized slowdown · 1.58×50 %1
Expected slowdown · 0.67×50 %1
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-45.9 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.

·15 → 0,09

FCF quality100

FCF / net income conversion · 1.51×100 %100
Window chosen: last 3 years (the best of those evaluated).
Alternative · last 5 years: conversion 1.32× → 98 points.
Positive FCF in 3 of the 3 years in the window.

·15 → 15,00

Debt11

Net debt / EBITDA · 3.09×100 %11
Net debt / EBITDA has risen 3 years in a row: −8 points.
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 2.9×.
Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.
Interest coverage below 4×.

·15 → 1,69

Return on invested capital (ROIC)66

Level (recency-weighted mean) · 17.4 %50 %79
Spread over the required return · +0.1 pp over the 10 % required30 %87
Trend · −22.4 pp over 5 years20 %0

·15 → 9,86

Weighted base

·100 → 27,96

Score

Range

Points

Gross margin trend · −4.0 pp accumulated over 4 years10

±8

-6,4

Altman Z'' · Z'' = 5.22100

0/−15

0,0

Shareholder returns · shareholder yield 10.6 %71

Effective buyback (net share count) · 10.6 %71
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 0.0 %0

+15/−5

+10,6

Impairment · 17 % · worst magnitude: earnings83

Earnings · 16.6 %83
Free cash flow · 13.6 %86
EBITDA · 4.0 %96

0/−12

-2,0

28,0 − 6,4 + 0,0 + 10,6 − 2,0 =30,2