No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments7
Interest coverage below 4×.
Anomalous cash conversion — review capex and non-cash charges.
The share count grows: net dilution.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
Median payout of 110 % of FCF: the dividend yield only counts half in the shareholder-returns modifier.
Impairment of earnings: 26 % of the window, weighted by recency → 3.1 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments3
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
The publicado consensus candidate was rejected (nivel_inicial_implausible) and is not used.
No consensus candidate passed the plausibility contract: rather than guess which of the provider's two rows is broken, nothing is written and the cascade drops a rung.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency38
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.24022 %2
Earnings · hit rate · 20 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.60611 %0
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.01414 %97
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.8 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 7,66
Growth pace15
Realized · -12.1 %50 %11
Expected · 4.5 %50 %20
·20 → 3,05
No recent stagnation46
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %28
Expected slowdown · -0.37×50 %65
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-29.2 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
·15 → 6,93
FCF quality100
FCF / net income conversion · 2.06×100 %100
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 5 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
Anomalous cash conversion — review capex and non-cash charges.
·15 → 15,00
Debt0
Net debt / EBITDA · 8.47×100 %0
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 1.6×.
Interest coverage below 4×.
·15 → 0,00
Return on invested capital (ROIC)9
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 6.2 %50 %5
Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %12
Trend · −4.0 pp over 5 years20 %17
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Average ROIC (6.2 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
·15 → 1,41
Weighted base
·100 → 34,05
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · −3.7 pp accumulated over 4 years13
±8
-5,9
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 4.05100
0/−15
0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.2 % a year0
Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.2 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 2.7 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—
