No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments6
Interest coverage below 4×.
The share count grows: net dilution.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
High stock-based compensation relative to FCF.
Impairment of earnings: 47 % of the window, weighted by recency → 5.7 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments2
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
The derivado consensus candidate was rejected (base_reconstruida) and is not used.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency56
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.05422 %77
Earnings · hit rate · 43 %16 %1
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.11511 %76
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.03714 %93
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.0 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 11,19
Growth pace50
Realized · 18.6 %50 %63
Expected · 11.0 %50 %36
·20 → 9,91
No recent stagnation37
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %54
Expected slowdown · 0.59×50 %19
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-8.0 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
·15 → 5,49
FCF quality60
FCF / net income conversion · 0.91×100 %60
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2024, 2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Stock-based compensation = 17 % of FCF: −3.6 points off the factor.
Positive FCF in 5 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
High stock-based compensation relative to FCF.
·15 → 9,00
Debt10
Net debt / EBITDA · 4.43×100 %10
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 0.2×.
Interest coverage below 4×.
·15 → 1,48
Return on invested capital (ROIC)19
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 7.9 %50 %14
Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %29
Trend · window too short20 %—
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2024, 2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Average ROIC (7.9 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
·15 → 2,89
Weighted base
·100 → 39,97
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · −4.5 pp accumulated over 4 years5
±8
-7,2
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 5.06100
0/−15
0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.8 % a year0
Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.8 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 0.0 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—
