COSTAR GROUP, INC.

CSGP

Forward P/E: 18.54×
Mkt cap: 13.0 B USD
EV: 12.3 B USD
Sector: Real Estate
Coverage: 2009–2025
Currency: USD
Next event: Feb 26, 2027

JP Valuation

JP Score

36,2

Doubtful · window 5 years

JP entry price

1.83 USD

EXPENSIVE

Value

Intrinsic value: 2.51 USD
Margin of safety: 27.14 %

Return

Expected IRR: -33.89 %
Required IRR: 17.19 %

Price

Current price: 31.98 USD
Gap to entry price: ▲ 1,650.16 % above entry

31.98Current

2.51Intrinsic

1.83Entry

vs Intrinsic−92.16 %

vs Entry−94.29 %

Financial comments7

Interest coverage below 4×.
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
The share count grows: net dilution.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
High stock-based compensation relative to FCF.
Impairment of fcf: 38 % of the window, weighted by recency → 4.6 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.

Calculation comments7

No consensus candidate passed the plausibility contract: nothing is rewritten and the path falls to the next rung of the cascade.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
The estimated net income does not sit plausibly against the base (0.02 the base in the first year, 0.17 annualised at the end): the consensus is discarded rather than trimmed, and the cascade drops a rung.
Anomalous earnings in the latest financial year: the base EPS is rebuilt as last year's revenue × the MEDIAN net margin of the valid years. Revenue is almost never anomalous when earnings are —the trough comes from a charge, not from the business disappearing—.
Anomalous FCF financial year(s) (2024): the base moves from the 3-year mean to the MEDIAN of the 4 valid years.
The latest earnings year is anomalous and the only estimate available is a growth percentage pre-packed by the provider against that same sunken year: it would be the recovery applied on a base that already includes it. It is discarded and the cascade drops one step.
Single-rate path: -22.6 % a year over the 5-year horizon. There is no invented tail — what varies with consensus coverage is how precisely the rate is measured, not how many years are projected.

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Change these figures and the entry price recalculates instantly.

Base net income(auto): M USD
Base free cash flow(auto): M USD
Average annual growth(auto): %

Quality factors

Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.

Score	Weight → points
Growth consistency39 Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.32422 %1 Earnings · hit rate · 43 %16 %1 Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.54511 %0 Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.01714 %97 Revenue · hit rate · 100 %11 %94 Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.0277 %97 Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus 40.8 % vs. trend -22.6 %20 %38 Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.	·20 → 7,74
Growth pace58 Realized · -22.0 %50 %29 Expected · 40.8 %50 %87 Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).	·20 → 11,58
No recent stagnation65 Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %37 Expected slowdown · -1.86×50 %93 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-60.7 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe. Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.	·15 → 9,77
FCF quality0 FCF / net income conversion · 0.51×100 %0 Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated). Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts. Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts. Stock-based compensation = 54 % of FCF: −25.0 points off the factor. Positive FCF in 4 of the 5 years in the window. An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts. High stock-based compensation relative to FCF.	·15 → 0,00
Debt100 Net debt / EBITDA · -3.29×100 %100 Interest coverage (EBIT / \|interest\|) = 0.0×. Net cash = 4.9 % of market cap. Interest coverage below 4×.	·15 → 15,00
Return on invested capital (ROIC)6 Level (recency-weighted mean) · 3.6 %50 %0 Spread over the required return · −0.1 pp over the 10 % required30 %0 Trend · −2.5 pp over 4 years20 %29 Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts. Average ROIC (3.6 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value. An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts. ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.	·15 → 0,87
Weighted base	·100 → 44,96

Modifiers and penalties

The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.

Score	Range	Points
Gross margin trend · −2.1 pp accumulated over 4 years29	±8	-3,3
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 8.82100	0/−15	0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.3 % a year0 Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.3 % of dilution0 Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 0.0 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—	+15/−5	-0,9
Impairment · 38 % · worst magnitude: fcf62 Earnings · 34.5 %65 Free cash flow · 38.4 %62 EBITDA · 21.7 %78	0/−12	-4,6
45,0 − 3,3 + 0,0 − 0,9 − 4,6 =36,2

Calculated on Sep 5, 2026Methodological detail

How the price is built: EPS and FCF are projected five years along the growth path, a target multiple adjusted for quality is applied to them, the result is discounted back to today and a margin of safety is demanded on top.

Growth path

Growth path source: B4 · no consensus: own trajectory projected
Growth path: -22.61 % · -22.61 % · -22.61 % · -22.61 % · -22.61 %

Bases

EPS base: 1.22
FCF base: 359 M

Target multiples

Target P/E: 10,00×
Target EV/FCF: 12,00×
Quality factor: 0,76×
Weight of the P/E route: 35.00 %
Projected buyback rate: 0.34 %

Five-year projection

EPS in 5 years: 0.33
FCF in 5 years: 99.7 M
Accumulated dividends: 0.00
Shares in 5 years: 412 M
Price in 5 years: 4.04

Value today

P/E route · price today: 2.06
EV/FCF route · price today: 2.75

Supporting metrics

Gross margin trend: −2.1 pp accumulated over 4 years
Altman Z'': Z'' = 8.82
Shareholder returns: dilutes 0.3 % a year
Impairment: 38 % · worst magnitude: fcf
Net debt: -629 M USD
Required return: 10.00 %

Score

Weight → points

Growth consistency39

Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.32422 %1
Earnings · hit rate · 43 %16 %1
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.54511 %0
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.01714 %97
Revenue · hit rate · 100 %11 %94
Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.0277 %97
Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus 40.8 % vs. trend -22.6 %20 %38
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.

·20 → 7,74

Growth pace58

Realized · -22.0 %50 %29
Expected · 40.8 %50 %87
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).

·20 → 11,58

No recent stagnation65

Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %37
Expected slowdown · -1.86×50 %93
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-60.7 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.

·15 → 9,77

FCF quality0

FCF / net income conversion · 0.51×100 %0
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Stock-based compensation = 54 % of FCF: −25.0 points off the factor.
Positive FCF in 4 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
High stock-based compensation relative to FCF.

·15 → 0,00

Debt100

Net debt / EBITDA · -3.29×100 %100
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 0.0×.
Net cash = 4.9 % of market cap.
Interest coverage below 4×.

·15 → 15,00

Return on invested capital (ROIC)6

Level (recency-weighted mean) · 3.6 %50 %0
Spread over the required return · −0.1 pp over the 10 % required30 %0
Trend · −2.5 pp over 4 years20 %29
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Average ROIC (3.6 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.

·15 → 0,87

Weighted base

·100 → 44,96

Score

Range

Points

Gross margin trend · −2.1 pp accumulated over 4 years29

±8

-3,3

Altman Z'' · Z'' = 8.82100

0/−15

0,0

Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.3 % a year0

Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.3 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 0.0 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—

+15/−5

-0,9

Impairment · 38 % · worst magnitude: fcf62

Earnings · 34.5 %65
Free cash flow · 38.4 %62
EBITDA · 21.7 %78

0/−12

-4,6

45,0 − 3,3 + 0,0 − 0,9 − 4,6 =36,2

JP Valuation

1Growth path

2Bases

3Target multiples

4Five-year projection

5Value today

Supporting metrics

JP Valuation

1Growth path

2Bases

3Target multiples

4Five-year projection

5Value today

Supporting metrics

Growth path

Bases

Target multiples

Five-year projection

Value today

Growth path

Bases

Target multiples

Five-year projection

Value today