No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments7
Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.
Interest coverage below 4×.
Anomalous cash conversion — review capex and non-cash charges.
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
Impairment of fcf: 56 % of the window, weighted by recency → 6.7 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments2
The derivado consensus candidate was rejected (base_reconstruida) and is not used.
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (M4 payout) (2024, 2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency6
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.35322 %1
Earnings · hit rate · 26 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.72211 %0
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.04914 %0
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 1,27
Growth pace35
Realized · -42.3 %50 %0
Expected · 85.5 %50 %69
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
·20 → 6,90
No recent stagnation50
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %1
Expected slowdown · -2.02×50 %99
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-42.3 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
·15 → 7,45
FCF quality100
FCF / net income conversion · 1.73×100 %100
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 3 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
Anomalous cash conversion — review capex and non-cash charges.
·15 → 15,00
Debt0
Net debt / EBITDA · 10.00×100 %0
Net debt / EBITDA has risen 3 years in a row: −8 points.
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 0.0×.
Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.
Interest coverage below 4×.
·15 → 0,00
Return on invested capital (ROIC)17
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 8.1 %50 %15
Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %31
Trend · −17.0 pp over 4 years20 %0
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Average ROIC (8.1 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
·15 → 2,51
Weighted base
·100 → 33,13
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · −13.2 pp accumulated over 4 years0
