No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments5
Fewer than 3 years of positive earnings in the window.
Interest coverage below 4×.
The share count grows: net dilution.
Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.
Impairment of earnings: 70 % of the window, weighted by recency → 8.4 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments4
No consensus candidate passed the plausibility contract: nothing is rewritten and the path falls to the next rung of the cascade.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
More anomalous years than the model can exclude. It no longer annuls the factor: if enough valid years remain it is measured with them, and the irregularity is charged by the Impairment modifier.
The estimated net income does not sit plausibly against the base (0.38 the base in the first year, 0.85 annualised at the end): the consensus is discarded rather than trimmed, and the cascade drops a rung.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency33
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · n/a22 %—
Earnings · hit rate · 0 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · n/a11 %—
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.03914 %91
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 6,55
Growth pace36
Realized · —50 %61
Expected · -15.1 %50 %10
Only 2 year(s) with positive earnings in the window: growth pace scores 0.
3 anomalous financial years in earnings within the window: this is not one bad year, it is an erratic track record. The factor does not score and its weight is redistributed.
Fewer than 3 years of positive earnings in the window.
More anomalous years than the model can exclude. It no longer annuls the factor: if enough valid years remain it is measured with them, and the irregularity is charged by the Impairment modifier.
·20 → 7,13
No recent stagnation46
Realized slowdown · n/a50 %90
Expected slowdown · n/a50 %2
3 anomalous financial years in earnings within the window: this is not one bad year, it is an erratic track record. The factor does not score and its weight is redistributed.
More anomalous years than the model can exclude. It no longer annuls the factor: if enough valid years remain it is measured with them, and the irregularity is charged by the Impairment modifier.
Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.
·15 → 6,89
FCF quality—
FCF / net income conversion · n/a100 %—
3 anomalous financial years in earnings within the window: this is not one bad year, it is an erratic track record. The factor does not score and its weight is redistributed.
Positive FCF in 2 of the 4 years in the window.
More anomalous years than the model can exclude. It no longer annuls the factor: if enough valid years remain it is measured with them, and the irregularity is charged by the Impairment modifier.
·15 → —
Debt7
Net debt / EBITDA · 5.12×100 %7
Anomalous financial year(s) in EBITDA (2022): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 1.6×.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
Interest coverage below 4×.
·15 → 1,00
Return on invested capital (ROIC)—
3 anomalous financial years in earnings or invested capital within the window: this is not one bad year, it is an erratic track record. The factor does not score and its weight is redistributed.
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2022, 2023, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Only 1 valid financial year(s) left (minimum 3): Return on invested capital (ROIC) does not score and its weight is redistributed.
More anomalous years than the model can exclude. It no longer annuls the factor: if enough valid years remain it is measured with them, and the irregularity is charged by the Impairment modifier.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → —
Weighted base
·100 → 30,81
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · +2.2 pp accumulated over 4 years72
±8
+3,6
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 2.3583
0/−15
-2,5
Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.3 % a year0
Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.3 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 0.0 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—
