Elevance Health, Inc.

ELV

Forward P/E: 13.61×
Mkt cap: 87.4 B USD
EV: 110 B USD
Sector: Healthcare
Coverage: 2007–2025
Currency: USD
Next event: Feb 6, 2027

JP Valuation

JP Score

32,8

Out of profile · window 5 years

JP entry price

OUT OF PROFILE

No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.

Financial comments5

Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
Impairment of fcf: 6 % of the window, weighted by recency → 0.7 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.

Quality factors

Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.

Score	Weight → points
Growth consistency54 Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.02822 %0 Earnings · hit rate · 23 %16 %0 Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.05411 %94 Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.02014 %96 Revenue · hit rate · 100 %11 %94 Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.0367 %96 Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus -1.1 % vs. trend -1.6 %20 %69	·20 → 10,84
Growth pace11 Realized · -1.9 %50 %21 Expected · -1.1 %50 %2	·20 → 2,25
No recent stagnation16 Realized slowdown · 0.43×50 %32 Expected slowdown · 0.61×50 %1 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-0.8 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe. Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped. Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.	·15 → 2,45
FCF quality72 FCF / net income conversion · 0.97×100 %72 Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated). Alternative · last 3 years: conversion 0.82× → 49 points. Positive FCF in 5 of the 5 years in the window.	·15 → 10,77
Debt20 Net debt / EBITDA · 2.58×100 %20 Net debt / EBITDA has risen 3 years in a row: −8 points. Interest coverage (EBIT / \|interest\|) = 14.7×. Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.	·15 → 3,06
Return on invested capital (ROIC)26 Level (recency-weighted mean) · 8.8 %50 %19 Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %38 Trend · −3.0 pp over 5 years20 %25 Average ROIC (8.8 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value. ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.	·15 → 3,93
Weighted base	·100 → 33,31

Modifiers and penalties

The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.

Score	Range	Points
Gross margin trend · −2.2 pp accumulated over 4 years28	±8	-3,5
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 6.38100	0/−15	0,0
Shareholder returns · shareholder yield 3.8 %25 Effective buyback (net share count) · 2.1 %14 Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 1.7 %11	+15/−5	+3,8
Impairment · 6 % · worst magnitude: fcf94 Earnings · 0.0 %100 Free cash flow · 6.0 %94 EBITDA · 0.0 %100	0/−12	-0,7
33,3 − 3,5 + 0,0 + 3,8 − 0,7 =32,8

Calculated on Sep 5, 2026

Score

Weight → points

Growth consistency54

Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.02822 %0
Earnings · hit rate · 23 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.05411 %94
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.02014 %96
Revenue · hit rate · 100 %11 %94
Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.0367 %96
Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus -1.1 % vs. trend -1.6 %20 %69

·20 → 10,84

Growth pace11

Realized · -1.9 %50 %21
Expected · -1.1 %50 %2

·20 → 2,25

No recent stagnation16

Realized slowdown · 0.43×50 %32
Expected slowdown · 0.61×50 %1
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-0.8 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.

·15 → 2,45

FCF quality72

FCF / net income conversion · 0.97×100 %72
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Alternative · last 3 years: conversion 0.82× → 49 points.
Positive FCF in 5 of the 5 years in the window.

·15 → 10,77

Debt20

Net debt / EBITDA · 2.58×100 %20
Net debt / EBITDA has risen 3 years in a row: −8 points.
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 14.7×.
Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.

·15 → 3,06

Return on invested capital (ROIC)26

Level (recency-weighted mean) · 8.8 %50 %19
Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %38
Trend · −3.0 pp over 5 years20 %25
Average ROIC (8.8 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.

·15 → 3,93

Weighted base

·100 → 33,31

Score

Range

Points

Gross margin trend · −2.2 pp accumulated over 4 years28

±8

-3,5

Altman Z'' · Z'' = 6.38100

0/−15

0,0

Shareholder returns · shareholder yield 3.8 %25

Effective buyback (net share count) · 2.1 %14
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 1.7 %11

+15/−5

+3,8

Impairment · 6 % · worst magnitude: fcf94

Earnings · 0.0 %100
Free cash flow · 6.0 %94
EBITDA · 0.0 %100

0/−12

-0,7

33,3 − 3,5 + 0,0 + 3,8 − 0,7 =32,8