ENERGEAN PLC ORD 1P

ENOG.L

Forward P/E: 4.96×
Mkt cap: 1.41 B GBP
EV: 3.64 B GBP
Sector: Energy
Coverage: 2021–2024
Currency: GBP · USD
Next event: Mar 16, 2027

JP Valuation

JP Score

32,9

Out of profile · window 4 years

JP entry price

OUT OF PROFILE

No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.

Financial comments5

Recurring adjustments: normalized earnings sit well above reported.
Interest coverage below 4×.
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
The share count grows: net dilution.
Impairment of fcf: 52 % of the window, weighted by recency → 6.3 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.

Calculation comments3

No consensus candidate passed the plausibility contract: nothing is rewritten and the path falls to the next rung of the cascade.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
The estimated net income does not sit plausibly against the base (3.79 the base in the first year, 2.04 annualised at the end): the consensus is discarded rather than trimmed, and the cascade drops a rung.

Quality factors

Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.

Score	Weight → points
Growth consistency26 Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · n/a22 %— Earnings · hit rate · 38 %16 %1 Earnings · volatility · n/a11 %— Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.07214 %74 Revenue · hit rate · 100 %11 %94 Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.1357 %66 Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus 104.3 % vs. trend —20 %0 Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.	·20 → 5,12
Growth pace75 Realized · 162.6 %50 %100 Expected · 104.3 %50 %50 Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).	·20 → 15,01
No recent stagnation46 Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %90 Expected slowdown · 0.64×50 %2	·15 → 6,90
FCF quality— FCF / net income conversion · n/a100 %— Positive FCF in 2 of the 4 years in the window.	·15 → —
Debt5 Net debt / EBITDA · 5.58×100 %5 Interest coverage (EBIT / \|interest\|) = 1.8×. Interest coverage below 4×.	·15 → 0,79
Return on invested capital (ROIC)— Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2021, 2022): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts. Only 2 valid financial year(s) left (minimum 3): Return on invested capital (ROIC) does not score and its weight is redistributed. An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.	·15 → —
Weighted base	·100 → 39,75

Modifiers and penalties

The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.

Score	Range	Points
Gross margin trend · window too short50	±8	0,0
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 3.52100	0/−15	0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.2 % a year0 Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.2 % of dilution0 Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 11.6 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—	+15/−5	-0,6
Impairment · 52 % · worst magnitude: fcf48 Earnings · 38.9 %61 Free cash flow · 52.4 %48 EBITDA · 2.0 %98	0/−12	-6,3
39,8 + 0,0 + 0,0 − 0,6 − 6,3 =32,9

Calculated on Sep 5, 2026

Score

Weight → points

Growth consistency26

Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · n/a22 %—
Earnings · hit rate · 38 %16 %1
Earnings · volatility · n/a11 %—
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.07214 %74
Revenue · hit rate · 100 %11 %94
Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.1357 %66
Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus 104.3 % vs. trend —20 %0
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.

·20 → 5,12

Growth pace75

Realized · 162.6 %50 %100
Expected · 104.3 %50 %50
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).

·20 → 15,01

No recent stagnation46

Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %90
Expected slowdown · 0.64×50 %2

·15 → 6,90

FCF quality—

FCF / net income conversion · n/a100 %—
Positive FCF in 2 of the 4 years in the window.

·15 → —

Debt5

Net debt / EBITDA · 5.58×100 %5
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 1.8×.
Interest coverage below 4×.

·15 → 0,79

Return on invested capital (ROIC)—

Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2021, 2022): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Only 2 valid financial year(s) left (minimum 3): Return on invested capital (ROIC) does not score and its weight is redistributed.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.

·15 → —

Weighted base

·100 → 39,75

Score

Range

Points

Gross margin trend · window too short50

±8

0,0

Altman Z'' · Z'' = 3.52100

0/−15

0,0

Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.2 % a year0

Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.2 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 11.6 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—

+15/−5

-0,6

Impairment · 52 % · worst magnitude: fcf48

Earnings · 38.9 %61
Free cash flow · 52.4 %48
EBITDA · 2.0 %98

0/−12

-6,3

39,8 + 0,0 + 0,0 − 0,6 − 6,3 =32,9