EQT Corp

EQT

Forward P/E: 13.44×
Mkt cap: 34.8 B USD
EV: 42.5 B USD
Sector: Energy
Coverage: 2007–2025
Currency: USD
Next event: Feb 18, 2027

JP Valuation

JP Score

33,4

Out of profile · window 5 years

JP entry price

OUT OF PROFILE

No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.

Financial comments4

Recurring adjustments: normalized earnings sit well above reported.
The share count grows: net dilution.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
Impairment of earnings: 34 % of the window, weighted by recency → 4.0 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.

Calculation comments1

An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.

Quality factors

Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.

Score	Weight → points
Growth consistency22 Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.08722 %59 Earnings · hit rate · 0 %16 %0 Earnings · volatility · n/a11 %— Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.27114 %0 Revenue · hit rate · 50 %11 %3 Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.4787 %0 Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus 18.1 % vs. trend 8.4 %20 %29 Short effective sample (N_eff = 2.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.	·20 → 4,49
Growth pace48 Realized · 6.1 %50 %34 Expected · 18.1 %50 %63	·20 → 9,67
No recent stagnation62 Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %54 Expected slowdown · 2.97×50 %70	·15 → 9,31
FCF quality83 FCF / net income conversion · 1.08×100 %83 Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated). Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2021, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts. Positive FCF in 5 of the 5 years in the window. An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.	·15 → 12,49
Debt40 Net debt / EBITDA · 1.98×100 %40 Interest coverage (EBIT / \|interest\|) = 11.9×.	·15 → 6,07
Return on invested capital (ROIC)21 Level (recency-weighted mean) · 8.2 %50 %15 Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %32 Trend · window too short20 %— Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2021, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts. Average ROIC (8.2 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value. An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts. ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.	·15 → 3,22
Weighted base	·100 → 45,24

Modifiers and penalties

The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.

Score	Range	Points
Gross margin trend · −1.8 pp accumulated over 4 years32	±8	-2,8
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 5.74100	0/−15	0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 13.0 % a year0 Effective buyback (net share count) · 13.0 % of dilution0 Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 1.1 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—	+15/−5	-5,0
Impairment · 34 % · worst magnitude: earnings66 Earnings · 33.6 %66 Free cash flow · 12.6 %87 EBITDA · 7.8 %92	0/−12	-4,0
45,2 − 2,8 + 0,0 − 5,0 − 4,0 =33,4

Calculated on Sep 5, 2026

Score

Weight → points

Growth consistency22

Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.08722 %59
Earnings · hit rate · 0 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · n/a11 %—
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.27114 %0
Revenue · hit rate · 50 %11 %3
Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.4787 %0
Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus 18.1 % vs. trend 8.4 %20 %29
Short effective sample (N_eff = 2.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.

·20 → 4,49

Growth pace48

Realized · 6.1 %50 %34
Expected · 18.1 %50 %63

·20 → 9,67

No recent stagnation62

Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %54
Expected slowdown · 2.97×50 %70

·15 → 9,31

FCF quality83

FCF / net income conversion · 1.08×100 %83
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2021, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 5 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.

·15 → 12,49

Debt40

Net debt / EBITDA · 1.98×100 %40
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 11.9×.

·15 → 6,07

Return on invested capital (ROIC)21

Level (recency-weighted mean) · 8.2 %50 %15
Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %32
Trend · window too short20 %—
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2021, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Average ROIC (8.2 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.

·15 → 3,22

Weighted base

·100 → 45,24

Score

Range

Points

Gross margin trend · −1.8 pp accumulated over 4 years32

±8

-2,8

Altman Z'' · Z'' = 5.74100

0/−15

0,0

Shareholder returns · dilutes 13.0 % a year0

Effective buyback (net share count) · 13.0 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 1.1 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—

+15/−5

-5,0

Impairment · 34 % · worst magnitude: earnings66

Earnings · 33.6 %66
Free cash flow · 12.6 %87
EBITDA · 7.8 %92

0/−12

-4,0

45,2 − 2,8 + 0,0 − 5,0 − 4,0 =33,4