No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments5
Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.
Interest coverage below 4×.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.
Impairment of earnings: 26 % of the window, weighted by recency → 3.1 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments2
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
The derivado consensus candidate was rejected (base_reconstruida) and is not used.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency32
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.06522 %1
Earnings · hit rate · 23 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.13711 %65
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.02814 %0
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 6,35
Growth pace0
Realized · -3.9 %50 %0
Expected · -4.9 %50 %0
·20 → 0,00
No recent stagnation1
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %1
Expected slowdown · 1.24×50 %1
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-33.4 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.
·15 → 0,09
FCF quality70
FCF / net income conversion · 0.96×100 %70
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2026): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 5 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 10,49
Debt0
Net debt / EBITDA · 9.08×100 %0
Net debt / EBITDA has risen 3 years in a row: −8 points.
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 1.8×.
Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.
Interest coverage below 4×.
·15 → 0,00
Return on invested capital (ROIC)42
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 11.7 %50 %40
Spread over the required return · +0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %58
Trend · −3.5 pp over 4 years20 %21
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2026): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 6,28
Weighted base
·100 → 23,20
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · +0.8 pp accumulated over 4 years58
