No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments5
Interest coverage below 4×.
The share count grows: net dilution.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
High stock-based compensation relative to FCF.
Impairment of earnings: 50 % of the window, weighted by recency → 6.0 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments4
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
The derivado consensus candidate was rejected (base_reconstruida) and is not used.
The publicado consensus candidate was rejected (nivel_inicial_implausible) and is not used.
No consensus candidate passed the plausibility contract: rather than guess which of the provider's two rows is broken, nothing is written and the cascade drops a rung.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency9
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.00022 %14
Earnings · hit rate · 0 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · n/a11 %—
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.07614 %0
Short effective sample (N_eff = 2.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 1,89
Growth pace22
Realized · -3.2 %50 %0
Expected · 8.5 %50 %44
·20 → 4,42
No recent stagnation50
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %1
Expected slowdown · -2.64×50 %99
·15 → 7,45
FCF quality99
FCF / net income conversion · 1.59×100 %99
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2023, 2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Stock-based compensation = 15 % of FCF: −0.7 points off the factor.
Positive FCF in 5 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
High stock-based compensation relative to FCF.
·15 → 14,90
Debt0
Net debt / EBITDA · 10.00×100 %0
Anomalous financial year(s) in EBITDA (2023): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 0.1×.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
Interest coverage below 4×.
·15 → 0,00
Return on invested capital (ROIC)7
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 6.1 %50 %4
Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %11
Trend · window too short20 %—
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2023, 2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Average ROIC (6.1 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
·15 → 1,04
Weighted base
·100 → 29,69
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · +5.6 pp accumulated over 4 years100
±8
+8,0
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 5.13100
0/−15
0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.5 % a year0
Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.5 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 3.0 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—
