No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments6
Anomalous cash conversion — review capex and non-cash charges.
The share count grows: net dilution.
EBITDA at or below zero: debt scored on net debt / market cap.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
Impairment of earnings: 27 % of the window, weighted by recency → 3.3 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments2
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
FCF, capex and net debt do not mean the same thing at a bank or an insurer: the score is issued, but read it with reservations.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency6
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.33022 %2
Earnings · hit rate · 0 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.17211 %42
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.18514 %0
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.8 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 1,22
Growth pace38
Realized · -8.7 %50 %2
Expected · 19.4 %50 %74
·20 → 7,54
No recent stagnation69
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %40
Expected slowdown · -2.23×50 %99
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-8.7 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
·15 → 10,40
FCF quality100
FCF / net income conversion · 1.67×100 %100
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 5 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
Anomalous cash conversion — review capex and non-cash charges.
·15 → 15,00
Debt11
EBITDA at or below zero, or no ratio available: debt is scored on net debt / market cap.
EBITDA at or below zero: debt scored on net debt / market cap.
·15 → 1,59
Return on invested capital (ROIC)9
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 5.7 %50 %3
Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %7
Trend · −2.6 pp over 5 years20 %28
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Average ROIC (5.7 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
·15 → 1,39
Weighted base
·100 → 37,13
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · window too short50
±8
0,0
Altman Z'' · no Altman100
0/−15
0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.3 % a year0
Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.3 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 3.9 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—
+15/−5
-0,9
Impairment · 27 % · worst magnitude: earnings73
Earnings · 27.2 %73
Free cash flow · 16.8 %83
EBITDA · not measurable (non-positive normal level)—
