KIMCO REALTY CORP

KIM

Forward P/E: 26.98×
Mkt cap: 16.2 B USD
EV: 24.2 B USD
Sector: Real Estate
Coverage: 2007–2025
Currency: USD
Next event: Feb 20, 2027

JP Valuation

JP Score

32,9

Out of profile · window 5 years

JP entry price

OUT OF PROFILE

No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.

Financial comments5

Interest coverage below 4×.
Anomalous cash conversion — review capex and non-cash charges.
The share count grows: net dilution.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
Impairment of earnings: 11 % of the window, weighted by recency → 1.4 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.

Calculation comments1

An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.

Quality factors

Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.

Score	Weight → points
Growth consistency33 Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.22322 %2 Earnings · hit rate · 30 %16 %0 Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.50411 %0 Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.04214 %91 Revenue · hit rate · 100 %11 %94 Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.0767 %90 Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus 9.7 % vs. trend -12.2 %20 %15 Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.	·20 → 6,58
Growth pace33 Realized · -9.4 %50 %26 Expected · 9.7 %50 %40	·20 → 6,55
No recent stagnation38 Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %15 Expected slowdown · -1.04×50 %61	·15 → 5,69
FCF quality100 FCF / net income conversion · 1.99×100 %100 Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated). Alternative · last 3 years: conversion 1.99× → 100 points. Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2022): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts. Positive FCF in 4 of the 5 years in the window. An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts. Anomalous cash conversion — review capex and non-cash charges.	·15 → 15,00
Debt4 Net debt / EBITDA · 5.99×100 %4 Interest coverage (EBIT / \|interest\|) = 2.8×. Interest coverage below 4×.	·15 → 0,60
Return on invested capital (ROIC)6 Level (recency-weighted mean) · 3.4 %50 %0 Spread over the required return · −0.1 pp over the 10 % required30 %0 Trend · −2.2 pp over 5 years20 %31 Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2022): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts. Average ROIC (3.4 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value. An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts. ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.	·15 → 0,94
Weighted base	·100 → 35,36

Modifiers and penalties

The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.

Score	Range	Points
Gross margin trend · −0.2 pp accumulated over 4 years48	±8	-0,4
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 4.85100	0/−15	0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.3 % a year0 Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.3 % of dilution0 Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 4.2 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—	+15/−5	-0,7
Impairment · 11 % · worst magnitude: earnings89 Earnings · 11.5 %89 Free cash flow · 0.0 %100 EBITDA · 0.0 %100	0/−12	-1,4
35,4 − 0,4 + 0,0 − 0,7 − 1,4 =32,9

Calculated on Sep 5, 2026

Score

Weight → points

Growth consistency33

Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.22322 %2
Earnings · hit rate · 30 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.50411 %0
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.04214 %91
Revenue · hit rate · 100 %11 %94
Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.0767 %90
Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus 9.7 % vs. trend -12.2 %20 %15
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.

·20 → 6,58

Growth pace33

Realized · -9.4 %50 %26
Expected · 9.7 %50 %40

·20 → 6,55

No recent stagnation38

Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %15
Expected slowdown · -1.04×50 %61

·15 → 5,69

FCF quality100

FCF / net income conversion · 1.99×100 %100
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Alternative · last 3 years: conversion 1.99× → 100 points.
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2022): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 4 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
Anomalous cash conversion — review capex and non-cash charges.

·15 → 15,00

Debt4

Net debt / EBITDA · 5.99×100 %4
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 2.8×.
Interest coverage below 4×.

·15 → 0,60

Return on invested capital (ROIC)6

Level (recency-weighted mean) · 3.4 %50 %0
Spread over the required return · −0.1 pp over the 10 % required30 %0
Trend · −2.2 pp over 5 years20 %31
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2022): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Average ROIC (3.4 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.

·15 → 0,94

Weighted base

·100 → 35,36

Score

Range

Points

Gross margin trend · −0.2 pp accumulated over 4 years48

±8

-0,4

Altman Z'' · Z'' = 4.85100

0/−15

0,0

Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.3 % a year0

Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.3 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 4.2 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—

+15/−5

-0,7

Impairment · 11 % · worst magnitude: earnings89

Earnings · 11.5 %89
Free cash flow · 0.0 %100
EBITDA · 0.0 %100

0/−12

-1,4

35,4 − 0,4 + 0,0 − 0,7 − 1,4 =32,9