No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments8
Recurring adjustments: normalized earnings sit well above reported.
Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.
Interest coverage below 4×.
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
The share count grows: net dilution.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
Impairment of fcf: 83 % of the window, weighted by recency → 10.0 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments2
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
The derivado consensus candidate was rejected (base_reconstruida) and is not used.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency7
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.08422 %13
Earnings · hit rate · 0 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.17811 %38
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.18114 %0
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.0 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 1,41
Growth pace42
Realized · -29.6 %50 %0
Expected · 89.8 %50 %83
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
·20 → 8,32
No recent stagnation50
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %1
Expected slowdown · -3.04×50 %99
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-29.6 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
·15 → 7,45
FCF quality0
FCF / net income conversion · 0.05×100 %0
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2021, 2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 1 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 0,00
Debt0
Net debt / EBITDA · 10.00×100 %0
Net debt / EBITDA has risen 3 years in a row: −8 points.
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 0.0×.
Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.
Interest coverage below 4×.
·15 → 0,00
Return on invested capital (ROIC)7
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 6.1 %50 %4
Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %11
Trend · window too short20 %—
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2021, 2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Average ROIC (6.1 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
·15 → 0,99
Weighted base
·100 → 18,18
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · window too short50
±8
0,0
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 1.3919
0/−15
-12,1
Shareholder returns · dilutes 1.3 % a year0
Effective buyback (net share count) · 1.3 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · — · does not count: the active branch is dilution—
