LENNAR CORP /NEW/

LEN

Forward P/E: 12.77×
Mkt cap: 19.9 B USD
EV: 22.1 B USD
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Coverage: 2008–2025
Currency: USD
Next event: Jan 28, 2027

JP Valuation

JP Score

23,6

Out of profile · window 5 years

JP entry price

OUT OF PROFILE

No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.

Financial comments3

Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.
Impairment of fcf: 32 % of the window, weighted by recency → 3.9 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.

Calculation comments1

Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (M4 payout) (2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.

Quality factors

Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.

Score	Weight → points
Growth consistency29 Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.17922 %0 Earnings · hit rate · 20 %16 %0 Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.29511 %3 Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.06014 %83 Revenue · hit rate · 70 %11 %25 Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.0907 %86 Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus -10.3 % vs. trend -17.5 %20 %38	·20 → 5,73
Growth pace7 Realized · -16.9 %50 %13 Expected · -10.3 %50 %0	·20 → 1,33
No recent stagnation1 Realized slowdown · 1.51×50 %1 Expected slowdown · 0.61×50 %0 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-25.6 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe. Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped. Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.	·15 → 0,10
FCF quality20 FCF / net income conversion · 0.62×100 %20 Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated). Alternative · last 3 years: conversion 0.62× → 20 points. Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts. Positive FCF in 5 of the 5 years in the window. An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.	·15 → 3,06
Debt65 Net debt / EBITDA · 0.70×100 %65 Interest coverage (EBIT / \|interest\|) = 46.1×.	·15 → 9,80
Return on invested capital (ROIC)50 Level (recency-weighted mean) · 14.0 %50 %59 Spread over the required return · +0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %70 Trend · −13.8 pp over 5 years20 %0	·15 → 7,57
Weighted base	·100 → 27,58

Modifiers and penalties

The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.

Score	Range	Points
Gross margin trend · −10.9 pp accumulated over 4 years0	±8	-8,0
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 11.17100	0/−15	0,0
Shareholder returns · shareholder yield 8.0 %53 Effective buyback (net share count) · 5.5 %37 Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 2.4 %16	+15/−5	+8,0
Impairment · 32 % · worst magnitude: fcf68 Earnings · 13.1 %87 Free cash flow · 32.4 %68 EBITDA · 11.0 %89	0/−12	-3,9
27,6 − 8,0 + 0,0 + 8,0 − 3,9 =23,6

Calculated on Sep 5, 2026

Score

Weight → points

Growth consistency29

Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.17922 %0
Earnings · hit rate · 20 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.29511 %3
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.06014 %83
Revenue · hit rate · 70 %11 %25
Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.0907 %86
Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus -10.3 % vs. trend -17.5 %20 %38

·20 → 5,73

Growth pace7

Realized · -16.9 %50 %13
Expected · -10.3 %50 %0

·20 → 1,33

No recent stagnation1

Realized slowdown · 1.51×50 %1
Expected slowdown · 0.61×50 %0
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-25.6 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.

·15 → 0,10

FCF quality20

FCF / net income conversion · 0.62×100 %20
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Alternative · last 3 years: conversion 0.62× → 20 points.
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 5 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.

·15 → 3,06

Debt65

Net debt / EBITDA · 0.70×100 %65
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 46.1×.

·15 → 9,80

Return on invested capital (ROIC)50

Level (recency-weighted mean) · 14.0 %50 %59
Spread over the required return · +0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %70
Trend · −13.8 pp over 5 years20 %0

·15 → 7,57

Weighted base

·100 → 27,58

Score

Range

Points

Gross margin trend · −10.9 pp accumulated over 4 years0

±8

-8,0

Altman Z'' · Z'' = 11.17100

0/−15

0,0

Shareholder returns · shareholder yield 8.0 %53

Effective buyback (net share count) · 5.5 %37
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 2.4 %16

+15/−5

+8,0

Impairment · 32 % · worst magnitude: fcf68

Earnings · 13.1 %87
Free cash flow · 32.4 %68
EBITDA · 11.0 %89

0/−12

-3,9

27,6 − 8,0 + 0,0 + 8,0 − 3,9 =23,6