No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments5
The share count grows: net dilution.
EBITDA at or below zero: debt scored on net debt / market cap.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Median payout of 108 % of FCF: the dividend yield only counts half in the shareholder-returns modifier.
Impairment of earnings: 68 % of the window, weighted by recency → 8.2 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments4
The derivado consensus candidate was rejected (base_reconstruida) and is not used.
The publicado consensus candidate was rejected (nivel_inicial_implausible) and is not used.
No consensus candidate passed the plausibility contract: rather than guess which of the provider's two rows is broken, nothing is written and the cascade drops a rung.
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (M4 payout) (2022): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency27
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · n/a22 %—
Earnings · hit rate · 0 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · n/a11 %—
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.01814 %15
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 5,33
Growth pace10
Realized · -38.7 %50 %4
Expected · 27.9 %50 %15
·20 → 1,91
No recent stagnation99
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %99
Expected slowdown · -0.72×50 %99
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-49.8 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
·15 → 14,82
FCF quality—
FCF / net income conversion · n/a100 %—
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (2022): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 3 of the 4 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → —
Debt0
EBITDA at or below zero, or no ratio available: debt is scored on net debt / market cap.
EBITDA at or below zero: debt scored on net debt / market cap.
·15 → 0,00
Return on invested capital (ROIC)—
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2023, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Only 1 valid financial year(s) left (minimum 3): Return on invested capital (ROIC) does not score and its weight is redistributed.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → —
Weighted base
·100 → 31,51
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · −10.4 pp accumulated over 4 years0
±8
-8,0
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 3.12100
0/−15
0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 1.1 % a year0
Effective buyback (net share count) · 1.1 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 0.9 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—
