No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments6
Recurring adjustments: normalized earnings sit well above reported.
Anomalous cash conversion — review capex and non-cash charges.
EBITDA at or below zero: debt scored on net debt / market cap.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
Impairment of fcf: 56 % of the window, weighted by recency → 6.7 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments2
No consensus candidate passed the plausibility contract: nothing is rewritten and the path falls to the next rung of the cascade.
FCF, capex and net debt do not mean the same thing at a bank or an insurer: the score is issued, but read it with reservations.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency35
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.13422 %1
Earnings · hit rate · 71 %16 %29
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.22411 %16
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.02914 %1
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 7,09
Growth pace0
Realized · -3.1 %50 %0
Expected · —50 %0
·20 → 0,00
No recent stagnation1
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %1
Expected slowdown · n/a50 %1
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-3.1 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
·15 → 0,09
FCF quality100
FCF / net income conversion · 2.45×100 %100
Window chosen: last 4 years (the best of those evaluated).
Alternative · last 3 years: conversion 1.39× → 100 points.
Positive FCF in 2 of the 4 years in the window.
Anomalous cash conversion — review capex and non-cash charges.
·15 → 15,00
Debt100
EBITDA at or below zero, or no ratio available: debt is scored on net debt / market cap.
EBITDA at or below zero: debt scored on net debt / market cap.
·15 → 15,00
Return on invested capital (ROIC)2
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 5.4 %50 %1
Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %4
Trend · −8.1 pp over 4 years20 %0
Average ROIC (5.4 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
·15 → 0,28
Weighted base
·100 → 37,46
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · window too short50
±8
0,0
Altman Z'' · no Altman100
0/−15
0,0
Shareholder returns · shareholder yield 1.7 %12
Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.0 %0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 1.7 %11
+15/−5
+1,7
Impairment · 56 % · worst magnitude: fcf44
Earnings · 2.2 %98
Free cash flow · 56.1 %44
EBITDA · not measurable (non-positive normal level)—
