No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments5
Interest coverage below 4×.
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
Impairment of fcf: 26 % of the window, weighted by recency → 3.1 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments2
1 anomalous financial years in share count within the window: this is not one bad year, it is an erratic track record. The factor does not score and its weight is redistributed.
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (M4 payout) (2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency6
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.31422 %1
Earnings · hit rate · 38 %16 %1
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.57811 %0
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.14814 %14
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 1,15
Growth pace55
Realized · -5.6 %50 %40
Expected · 53.6 %50 %70
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
·20 → 10,99
No recent stagnation48
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %36
Expected slowdown · -9.59×50 %60
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-5.6 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
·15 → 7,22
FCF quality53
FCF / net income conversion · 0.84×100 %53
Window chosen: last 3 years (the best of those evaluated).
Alternative · last 4 years: conversion 0.76× → 39 points.
Positive FCF in 3 of the 3 years in the window.
·15 → 8,00
Debt18
Net debt / EBITDA · 3.19×100 %18
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 2.3×.
Interest coverage below 4×.
·15 → 2,77
Return on invested capital (ROIC)9
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 6.7 %50 %7
Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %17
Trend · −17.6 pp over 4 years20 %0
Average ROIC (6.7 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
·15 → 1,33
Weighted base
·100 → 31,46
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · −6.0 pp accumulated over 4 years0
