No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments5
Interest coverage below 4×.
The share count grows: net dilution.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
Impairment of earnings: 33 % of the window, weighted by recency → 4.0 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments1
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (M4 payout) (2021, 2022): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency14
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.62122 %2
Earnings · hit rate · 30 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · σ = 1.23711 %0
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.03414 %0
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.8 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 2,82
Growth pace27
Realized · -18.9 %50 %0
Expected · 16.9 %50 %54
·20 → 5,40
No recent stagnation50
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %1
Expected slowdown · -0.89×50 %99
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-18.9 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
·15 → 7,45
FCF quality20
FCF / net income conversion · 0.62×100 %20
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2023): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (2021, 2022): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 4 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 2,98
Debt5
Net debt / EBITDA · 5.52×100 %5
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 1.8×.
Interest coverage below 4×.
·15 → 0,82
Return on invested capital (ROIC)0
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 4.5 %50 %0
Spread over the required return · −0.1 pp over the 10 % required30 %0
Trend · −7.0 pp over 5 years20 %0
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2023): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Average ROIC (4.5 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
·15 → 0,00
Weighted base
·100 → 19,47
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · +5.9 pp accumulated over 4 years100
±8
+8,0
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 5.82100
0/−15
0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.4 % a year0
Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.4 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 3.5 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—
