No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments4
EBITDA at or below zero: debt scored on net debt / market cap.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
Impairment of earnings: 20 % of the window, weighted by recency → 2.4 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments2
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
FCF, capex and net debt do not mean the same thing at a bank or an insurer: the score is issued, but read it with reservations.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency6
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.02922 %15
Earnings · hit rate · 0 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · n/a11 %—
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.17214 %0
Short effective sample (N_eff = 2.8 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 1,26
Growth pace22
Realized · -7.0 %50 %0
Expected · 11.4 %50 %45
·20 → 4,48
No recent stagnation69
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %40
Expected slowdown · -1.63×50 %99
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-7.0 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
·15 → 10,40
FCF quality85
FCF / net income conversion · 1.09×100 %85
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2023): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 5 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 12,71
Debt9
EBITDA at or below zero, or no ratio available: debt is scored on net debt / market cap.
EBITDA at or below zero: debt scored on net debt / market cap.
·15 → 1,33
Return on invested capital (ROIC)7
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 4.4 %50 %0
Spread over the required return · −0.1 pp over the 10 % required30 %0
Trend · −2.0 pp over 5 years20 %34
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2023): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Average ROIC (4.4 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
·15 → 1,01
Weighted base
·100 → 31,19
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · window too short50
±8
0,0
Altman Z'' · no Altman100
0/−15
0,0
Shareholder returns · shareholder yield 5.6 %37
Effective buyback (net share count) · 1.4 %9
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 4.2 %28
+15/−5
+5,6
Impairment · 20 % · worst magnitude: earnings80
Earnings · 19.6 %80
Free cash flow · 18.5 %81
EBITDA · not measurable (non-positive normal level)—
