United Airlines Holdings, Inc.

UAL

Forward P/E: 6.90×
Mkt cap: 34.0 B USD
EV: 53.0 B USD
Sector: Industrials
Coverage: 2008–2025
Currency: USD
Next event: Feb 12, 2027

JP Valuation

JP Score

45,2

Doubtful · window 5 years

JP entry price

113.60 USD

BUY

Value

Intrinsic value: 152.95 USD
Margin of safety: 25.73 %

Return

Expected IRR: 18.68 %
Required IRR: 16.74 %

Price

Current price: 104.63 USD
Gap to entry price: ▼ 7.89 % below entry

104.63Current

152.95Intrinsic

113.60Entry

vs Intrinsic+46.18 %

vs Entry+8.57 %

Financial comments5

Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
The share count grows: net dilution.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
Impairment of fcf: 40 % of the window, weighted by recency → 4.8 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
The P/E route target multiple (15.6×) is 46 % above the window median (10.7×): that part of the price rests on a re-rating, not on growth.

Calculation comments3

An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
Anomalous FCF financial year(s) (2021, 2023): the base moves from the 3-year mean to the MEDIAN of the 3 valid years.
Single-rate path: 13.9 % a year over the 5-year horizon. There is no invented tail — what varies with consensus coverage is how precisely the rate is measured, not how many years are projected.

Adjust the valuation inputs

Change these figures and the entry price recalculates instantly.

Base net income(auto): M USD
Base free cash flow(auto): M USD
Average annual growth(auto): %

Quality factors

Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.

Score	Weight → points
Growth consistency23 Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.30722 %1 Earnings · hit rate · 80 %16 %56 Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.51611 %0 Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.15114 %12 Revenue · hit rate · 100 %11 %94 Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.2147 %20 Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus 17.8 % vs. trend 59.0 %20 %2 Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.	·20 → 4,54
Growth pace85 Realized · 68.9 %50 %100 Expected · 17.8 %50 %71 Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).	·20 → 17,06
No recent stagnation31 Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %58 Expected slowdown · 0.26×50 %4	·15 → 4,66
FCF quality61 FCF / net income conversion · 0.89×100 %61 Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated). Alternative · last 3 years: conversion 0.63× → 21 points. Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2021): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts. Positive FCF in 3 of the 5 years in the window. An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.	·15 → 9,11
Debt22 Net debt / EBITDA · 2.90×100 %22 Anomalous financial year(s) in EBITDA (2021): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts. Interest coverage (EBIT / \|interest\|) = 11.6×. An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.	·15 → 3,31
Return on invested capital (ROIC)30 Level (recency-weighted mean) · 6.9 %50 %8 Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %19 Trend · +6.9 pp over 4 years20 %100 Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2021): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts. Average ROIC (6.9 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value. An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts. ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.	·15 → 4,48
Weighted base	·100 → 43,15

Modifiers and penalties

The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.

Score	Range	Points
Gross margin trend · +4.8 pp accumulated over 4 years98	±8	+7,7
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 3.56100	0/−15	0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.3 % a year0 Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.3 % of dilution0 Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 0.0 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—	+15/−5	-0,8
Impairment · 40 % · worst magnitude: fcf60 Earnings · 25.9 %74 Free cash flow · 40.1 %60 EBITDA · 11.1 %89	0/−12	-4,8
43,1 + 7,7 + 0,0 − 0,8 − 4,8 =45,2

Calculated on Sep 5, 2026Methodological detail

How the price is built: EPS and FCF are projected five years along the growth path, a target multiple adjusted for quality is applied to them, the result is discounted back to today and a margin of safety is demanded on top.

Growth path

Growth path source: A · full year-by-year consensus (5 years)
Growth path: 13.88 % · 13.88 % · 13.88 % · 13.88 % · 13.88 %

Bases

EPS base: 10.81
FCF base: 2.56 B

Target multiples

Target P/E: 15,58×
Target EV/FCF: 16,65×
Quality factor: 0,82×
Weight of the P/E route: 50.00 %
Projected buyback rate: 0.33 %

Five-year projection

EPS in 5 years: 19.46
FCF in 5 years: 4.90 B
Accumulated dividends: 0.00
Shares in 5 years: 330 M
Price in 5 years: 246.32

Value today

P/E route · price today: 188.26
EV/FCF route · price today: 117.63

Supporting metrics

Gross margin trend: +4.8 pp accumulated over 4 years
Altman Z'': Z'' = 3.56
Shareholder returns: dilutes 0.3 % a year
Impairment: 40 % · worst magnitude: fcf
Net debt: 19.0 B USD
Required return: 10.00 %

Score

Weight → points

Growth consistency23

Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.30722 %1
Earnings · hit rate · 80 %16 %56
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.51611 %0
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.15114 %12
Revenue · hit rate · 100 %11 %94
Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.2147 %20
Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus 17.8 % vs. trend 59.0 %20 %2
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.

·20 → 4,54

Growth pace85

Realized · 68.9 %50 %100
Expected · 17.8 %50 %71
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).

·20 → 17,06

No recent stagnation31

Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %58
Expected slowdown · 0.26×50 %4

·15 → 4,66

FCF quality61

FCF / net income conversion · 0.89×100 %61
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Alternative · last 3 years: conversion 0.63× → 21 points.
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2021): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 3 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.

·15 → 9,11

Debt22

Net debt / EBITDA · 2.90×100 %22
Anomalous financial year(s) in EBITDA (2021): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 11.6×.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.

·15 → 3,31

Return on invested capital (ROIC)30

Level (recency-weighted mean) · 6.9 %50 %8
Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %19
Trend · +6.9 pp over 4 years20 %100
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2021): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Average ROIC (6.9 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.

·15 → 4,48

Weighted base

·100 → 43,15

Score

Range

Points

Gross margin trend · +4.8 pp accumulated over 4 years98

±8

+7,7

Altman Z'' · Z'' = 3.56100

0/−15

0,0

Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.3 % a year0

Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.3 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 0.0 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—

+15/−5

-0,8

Impairment · 40 % · worst magnitude: fcf60

Earnings · 25.9 %74
Free cash flow · 40.1 %60
EBITDA · 11.1 %89

0/−12

-4,8

43,1 + 7,7 + 0,0 − 0,8 − 4,8 =45,2

JP Valuation

1Growth path

2Bases

3Target multiples

4Five-year projection

5Value today

Supporting metrics

JP Valuation

1Growth path

2Bases

3Target multiples

4Five-year projection

5Value today

Supporting metrics

Growth path

Bases

Target multiples

Five-year projection

Value today

Growth path

Bases

Target multiples

Five-year projection

Value today