No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments2
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Impairment of earnings: 72 % of the window, weighted by recency → 8.6 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments5
No consensus candidate passed the plausibility contract: nothing is rewritten and the path falls to the next rung of the cascade.
Latest EBITDA anomalous: debt is scored on net debt / market cap, not on the ratio.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
More anomalous years than the model can exclude. It no longer annuls the factor: if enough valid years remain it is measured with them, and the irregularity is charged by the Impairment modifier.
Share-count change(s) from corporate actions (2021): out of the shareholder-returns estimator and of the 5-year share projection.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency12
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · n/a22 %—
Earnings · hit rate · 0 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · n/a11 %—
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.01614 %0
3 anomalous financial years in earnings within the window: this is not one bad year, it is an erratic track record. The factor does not score and its weight is redistributed.
More anomalous years than the model can exclude. It no longer annuls the factor: if enough valid years remain it is measured with them, and the irregularity is charged by the Impairment modifier.
·20 → 1,41
No recent stagnation50
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %1
Expected slowdown · n/a50 %99
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-71.0 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
3 anomalous financial years in earnings within the window: this is not one bad year, it is an erratic track record. The factor does not score and its weight is redistributed.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
More anomalous years than the model can exclude. It no longer annuls the factor: if enough valid years remain it is measured with them, and the irregularity is charged by the Impairment modifier.
·15 → 7,45
FCF quality—
FCF / net income conversion · n/a100 %—
3 anomalous financial years in earnings within the window: this is not one bad year, it is an erratic track record. The factor does not score and its weight is redistributed.
Positive FCF in 5 of the 5 years in the window.
More anomalous years than the model can exclude. It no longer annuls the factor: if enough valid years remain it is measured with them, and the irregularity is charged by the Impairment modifier.
·15 → —
Debt2
Anomalous EBITDA in the latest financial year: it is not excluded —it is a fact about the present— and debt is scored on net debt / market cap.
Latest EBITDA anomalous: debt is scored on net debt / market cap, not on the ratio.
·15 → 0,34
Return on invested capital (ROIC)—
3 anomalous financial years in earnings or invested capital within the window: this is not one bad year, it is an erratic track record. The factor does not score and its weight is redistributed.
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2021, 2024, 2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Only 2 valid financial year(s) left (minimum 3): Return on invested capital (ROIC) does not score and its weight is redistributed.
More anomalous years than the model can exclude. It no longer annuls the factor: if enough valid years remain it is measured with them, and the irregularity is charged by the Impairment modifier.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → —
Weighted base
·100 → 16,68
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · −5.5 pp accumulated over 4 years0
