No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments6
Interest coverage below 4×.
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
The share count grows: net dilution.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
High stock-based compensation relative to FCF.
Impairment of earnings: 42 % of the window, weighted by recency → 5.1 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments4
The publicado consensus candidate was rejected (nivel_inicial_implausible) and is not used.
The derivado consensus candidate was rejected (nivel_inicial_implausible) and is not used.
No consensus candidate passed the plausibility contract: rather than guess which of the provider's two rows is broken, nothing is written and the cascade drops a rung.
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (M4 payout) (2023, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency9
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.27122 %15
Earnings · hit rate · 20 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · n/a11 %—
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.35114 %0
Short effective sample (N_eff = 2.8 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 1,80
Growth pace50
Realized · -2.6 %50 %0
Expected · 76.3 %50 %100
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
·20 → 10,00
No recent stagnation50
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %1
Expected slowdown · -29.90×50 %99
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-2.6 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
·15 → 7,45
FCF quality5
FCF / net income conversion · 0.69×100 %5
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2023, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (2023, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Stock-based compensation = 35 % of FCF: −25.0 points off the factor.
Positive FCF in 3 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
High stock-based compensation relative to FCF.
·15 → 0,74
Debt50
Net debt / EBITDA · 1.52×100 %50
Anomalous financial year(s) in EBITDA (2023, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 1.9×.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
Interest coverage below 4×.
·15 → 7,45
Return on invested capital (ROIC)49
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 11.9 %50 %42
Spread over the required return · +0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %59
Trend · window too short20 %—
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2023, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 7,30
Weighted base
·100 → 34,75
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · +8.5 pp accumulated over 4 years100
±8
+8,0
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 5.41100
0/−15
0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 1.9 % a year0
Effective buyback (net share count) · 1.9 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 0.0 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—
