No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments7
Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.
Interest coverage below 4×.
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
Median payout of 161 % of FCF: the dividend yield only counts half in the shareholder-returns modifier.
Impairment of fcf: 41 % of the window, weighted by recency → 4.9 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments1
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (M4 payout) (2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency6
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.15422 %0
Earnings · hit rate · 0 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.25711 %7
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.05914 %0
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
·20 → 7,27
No recent stagnation50
Realized slowdown · 1.15×50 %1
Expected slowdown · -1.72×50 %99
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-56.6 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
·15 → 7,45
FCF quality4
FCF / net income conversion · 0.46×100 %4
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Alternative · last 3 years: conversion 0.19× → 0 points.
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 3 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 0,59
Debt3
Net debt / EBITDA · 4.12×100 %3
Net debt / EBITDA has risen 3 years in a row: −8 points.
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 1.6×.
Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.
Interest coverage below 4×.
·15 → 0,51
Return on invested capital (ROIC)9
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 6.7 %50 %7
Spread over the required return · −0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %17
Trend · −15.1 pp over 5 years20 %0
Average ROIC (6.7 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
·15 → 1,30
Weighted base
·100 → 18,41
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · window too short50
±8
0,0
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 5.35100
0/−15
0,0
Shareholder returns · shareholder yield 2.3 %16
Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.5 %4
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 1.8 % · cut down from 3.6 % (payout 161 % of FCF)12
