No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments3
The share count grows: net dilution.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Impairment of earnings: 37 % of the window, weighted by recency → 4.5 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments2
Share-count change(s) from corporate actions (2024): out of the shareholder-returns estimator and of the 5-year share projection.
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (M4 payout) (2020, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency11
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.00322 %14
Earnings · hit rate · 0 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · n/a11 %—
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.42314 %0
Short effective sample (N_eff = 2.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 2,15
Growth pace60
Realized · -12.3 %50 %37
Expected · 20.5 %50 %83
·20 → 11,99
No recent stagnation36
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %1
Expected slowdown · -1.67×50 %71
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-12.3 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
·15 → 5,36
FCF quality14
FCF / net income conversion · 0.57×100 %14
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2020, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (2020, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 5 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 2,06
Debt63
Net debt / EBITDA · 0.81×100 %63
Anomalous financial year(s) in EBITDA (2020, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 13.1×.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 9,52
Return on invested capital (ROIC)94
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 20.2 %50 %90
Spread over the required return · +0.1 pp over the 10 % required30 %100
Trend · window too short20 %—
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2020, 2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 14,04
Weighted base
·100 → 45,13
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
Score
Range
Points
Gross margin trend · −25.8 pp accumulated over 4 years0
±8
-8,0
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 6.41100
0/−15
0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 1.6 % a year0
Effective buyback (net share count) · 1.6 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 3.2 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—
