No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments4
Recurring adjustments: normalized earnings sit well above reported.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.
Impairment of earnings: 30 % of the window, weighted by recency → 3.6 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments3
The derivado consensus candidate was rejected (base_reconstruida) and is not used.
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (M4 payout) (2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
FCF, capex and net debt do not mean the same thing at a bank or an insurer: the score is issued, but read it with reservations.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency5
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.53222 %13
Earnings · hit rate · 29 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · σ = 1.13211 %0
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.30714 %13
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.0 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.0 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 0,94
Growth pace0
Realized · -54.6 %50 %0
Expected · -28.4 %50 %0
·20 → 0,00
No recent stagnation1
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %1
Expected slowdown · 0.52×50 %1
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-54.6 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.
·15 → 0,09
FCF quality0
FCF / net income conversion · 0.29×100 %0
Window chosen: last 4 years (the best of those evaluated).
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 4 of the 4 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 0,00
Debt35
Net debt / EBITDA · 2.25×100 %35
·15 → 5,26
Return on invested capital (ROIC)84
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 17.8 %50 %81
Spread over the required return · +0.1 pp over the 10 % required30 %89
Trend · window too short20 %—
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 12,59
Weighted base
·100 → 18,88
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
