Diamondback Energy, Inc.

FANG

Forward P/E: 11.21×
Mkt cap: 56.9 B USD
EV: 71.3 B USD
Sector: Energy
Coverage: 2010–2025
Currency: USD
Next event: Feb 25, 2027

JP Valuation

JP Score

19,0

Out of profile · window 5 years

JP entry price

OUT OF PROFILE

No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.

Financial comments5

Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.
Interest coverage below 4×.
The share count grows: net dilution.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Impairment of fcf: 69 % of the window, weighted by recency → 8.3 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.

Calculation comments4

The publicado consensus candidate was rejected (nivel_inicial_implausible) and is not used.
The derivado consensus candidate was rejected (nivel_inicial_implausible) and is not used.
No consensus candidate passed the plausibility contract: rather than guess which of the provider's two rows is broken, nothing is written and the cascade drops a rung.
Share-count change(s) from corporate actions (2024): out of the shareholder-returns estimator and of the 5-year share projection.

Quality factors

Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.

Score	Weight → points
Growth consistency14 Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.35522 %0 Earnings · hit rate · 47 %16 %2 Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.57011 %0 Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.10514 %45 Revenue · hit rate · 77 %11 %47 Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.1887 %32 Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus 16.4 % vs. trend -12.7 %20 %2	·20 → 2,87
Growth pace53 Realized · -9.2 %50 %40 Expected · 16.4 %50 %65	·20 → 10,55
No recent stagnation42 Realized slowdown · 3.29×50 %22 Expected slowdown · -1.78×50 %61 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-30.3 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe. Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.	·15 → 6,28
FCF quality0 FCF / net income conversion · -0.26×100 %0 Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated). Alternative · last 3 years: conversion -0.55× → 0 points. Positive FCF in 2 of the 5 years in the window.	·15 → 0,00
Debt26 Net debt / EBITDA · 2.28×100 %26 Net debt / EBITDA has risen 3 years in a row: −8 points. Interest coverage (EBIT / \|interest\|) = 2.1×. Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years. Interest coverage below 4×.	·15 → 3,95
Return on invested capital (ROIC)30 Level (recency-weighted mean) · 10.2 %50 %29 Spread over the required return · +0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %51 Trend · −12.3 pp over 5 years20 %0	·15 → 4,49
Weighted base	·100 → 28,13

Modifiers and penalties

The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.

Score	Range	Points
Gross margin trend · window too short50	±8	0,0
Altman Z'' · Z'' = 4.72100	0/−15	0,0
Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.3 % a year0 Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.3 % of dilution0 Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 2.0 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—	+15/−5	-0,8
Impairment · 69 % · worst magnitude: fcf31 Earnings · 13.1 %87 Free cash flow · 69.1 %31 EBITDA · 7.2 %93	0/−12	-8,3
28,1 + 0,0 + 0,0 − 0,8 − 8,3 =19,0

Calculated on Sep 5, 2026

Score

Weight → points

Growth consistency14

Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.35522 %0
Earnings · hit rate · 47 %16 %2
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.57011 %0
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.10514 %45
Revenue · hit rate · 77 %11 %47
Revenue · volatility · σ = 0.1887 %32
Forward · trajectory coherence · consensus 16.4 % vs. trend -12.7 %20 %2

·20 → 2,87

Growth pace53

Realized · -9.2 %50 %40
Expected · 16.4 %50 %65

·20 → 10,55

No recent stagnation42

Realized slowdown · 3.29×50 %22
Expected slowdown · -1.78×50 %61
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-30.3 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.

·15 → 6,28

FCF quality0

FCF / net income conversion · -0.26×100 %0
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Alternative · last 3 years: conversion -0.55× → 0 points.
Positive FCF in 2 of the 5 years in the window.

·15 → 0,00

Debt26

Net debt / EBITDA · 2.28×100 %26
Net debt / EBITDA has risen 3 years in a row: −8 points.
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 2.1×.
Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.
Interest coverage below 4×.

·15 → 3,95

Return on invested capital (ROIC)30

Level (recency-weighted mean) · 10.2 %50 %29
Spread over the required return · +0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %51
Trend · −12.3 pp over 5 years20 %0

·15 → 4,49

Weighted base

·100 → 28,13

Score

Range

Points

Gross margin trend · window too short50

±8

0,0

Altman Z'' · Z'' = 4.72100

0/−15

0,0

Shareholder returns · dilutes 0.3 % a year0

Effective buyback (net share count) · 0.3 % of dilution0
Dividend yield (last DPS / price today) · 2.0 % · does not count: the active branch is dilution—

+15/−5

-0,8

Impairment · 69 % · worst magnitude: fcf31

Earnings · 13.1 %87
Free cash flow · 69.1 %31
EBITDA · 7.2 %93

0/−12

-8,3

28,1 + 0,0 + 0,0 − 0,8 − 8,3 =19,0