No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments5
Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.
Interest coverage below 4×.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.
Impairment of fcf: 47 % of the window, weighted by recency → 5.7 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Calculation comments3
No consensus candidate passed the plausibility contract: nothing is rewritten and the path falls to the next rung of the cascade.
The estimated net income does not sit plausibly against the base (0.18 the base in the first year, 0.84 annualised at the end): the consensus is discarded rather than trimmed, and the cascade drops a rung.
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (M4 payout) (2024, 2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency11
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.36022 %2
Earnings · hit rate · 20 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.93611 %0
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.15714 %0
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.8 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 2,29
Growth pace3
Realized · -11.8 %50 %0
Expected · -15.9 %50 %6
·20 → 0,55
No recent stagnation20
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %1
Expected slowdown · 1.35×50 %40
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-34.0 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
Expected stagnation: consensus points to no growth.
·15 → 3,03
FCF quality0
FCF / net income conversion · 0.29×100 %0
Window chosen: last 5 years (the best of those evaluated).
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings (2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Anomalous financial year(s) in FCF (2024, 2025): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
Positive FCF in 4 of the 5 years in the window.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 0,00
Debt21
Net debt / EBITDA · 2.55×100 %21
Net debt / EBITDA has risen 3 years in a row: −8 points.
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 2.1×.
Leverage rising for 3 consecutive years.
Interest coverage below 4×.
·15 → 3,14
Return on invested capital (ROIC)31
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 10.5 %50 %31
Spread over the required return · +0.0 pp over the 10 % required30 %52
Trend · −13.4 pp over 5 years20 %0
Anomalous financial year(s) in earnings or invested capital (2024): out of this component's estimators; they still count in the counters and hard cuts.
An anomalous year is out of the estimators; it still counts in the counters and hard cuts.
·15 → 4,69
Weighted base
·100 → 13,71
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
