No target price is issued: the company falls outside the profile this method looks for.
Financial comments5
Interest coverage below 4×.
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
Impairment of fcf: 80 % of the window, weighted by recency → 9.6 points. It is the only place in the model where a bad year subtracts.
Quality factors
Each factor scores 0–100 on its own scale; the score is their weighted average.
Score
Weight → points
Growth consistency28
Earnings · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.27422 %1
Earnings · hit rate · 29 %16 %0
Earnings · volatility · σ = 0.44911 %0
Revenue · fit to the log-linear line · σ_resid = 0.03914 %91
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
Short effective sample (N_eff = 3.9 < 4): the fit subcomponent is shrunk towards neutral.
·20 → 5,59
Growth pace37
Realized · -20.8 %50 %11
Expected · 44.1 %50 %63
Small base / growth not extrapolable (CAGR above 40 %).
·20 → 7,38
No recent stagnation49
Realized slowdown · 1.00×50 %36
Expected slowdown · -2.12×50 %61
3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero (-20.8 %): the engine has slowed. It is scored on the acceleration scale, not cut — a binary cut turned a continuous fact into a cliff, and fired on 36 % of the universe.
Stagnation: 3-year earnings CAGR at or below zero. It is scored, not cut: the penalty is charged by the Impairment modifier, where it is continuous and capped.
·15 → 7,29
FCF quality0
FCF / net income conversion · -0.55×100 %0
Window chosen: last 4 years (the best of those evaluated).
Alternative · last 3 years: conversion -0.86× → 0 points.
Positive FCF in 1 of the 4 years in the window.
·15 → 0,00
Debt20
Net debt / EBITDA · 3.00×100 %20
Interest coverage (EBIT / |interest|) = 3.9×.
Interest coverage below 4×.
·15 → 3,00
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5
Level (recency-weighted mean) · 3.4 %50 %0
Spread over the required return · −0.1 pp over the 10 % required30 %0
Trend · −2.8 pp over 4 years20 %26
Average ROIC (3.4 %) below the required return (10 %): growth destroys value.
ROIC below the required return: growth destroys value.
·15 → 0,79
Weighted base
·100 → 24,06
Modifiers and penalties
The factors build the score; the modifiers correct it, within +23 / −28. Same 0–100 bar, 100 is always good.
